NFL Week 1 2026: Picks for Every Marquee Matchup

Seahawks vs. Patriots: A Super Bowl Rematch to Open the Season

There's no bigger stage for a season opener than a title-defense rematch, and that's exactly what Seattle gets. Seven months after beating New England in Super Bowl LX, the Seahawks host the Patriots on Wednesday night to kick off the league's 107th season. Seattle opened as roughly a 3.5-point favorite, and while New England has upgraded its roster since the loss, it was thoroughly outplayed by this Seattle defense on the sport's biggest stage. Until the Patriots prove otherwise, the pick has to lean toward the champs at home.

Pick: Seahawks win and cover.

Rams vs. 49ers: Football Goes Down Under

Two days later, the NFL stages its first-ever regular-season game in Australia, sending the Rams and 49ers to Melbourne for an early-morning kickoff (local time) that will play out in prime time back home. Both teams reached the playoffs as wild-card entries last season, but the Rams enter 2026 as one of the trendier Super Bowl picks and are favored in this neutral-site divisional clash. San Francisco added some offensive firepower over the offseason, but the Rams' overall roster depth gives them the edge in what should be a tightly contested, lower-scoring affair given both defenses.

Pick: Rams win, close game.

Bills vs. Texans: The Tightest Spread of the Weekend

If you want a coin-flip game to build a parlay around, look no further than Buffalo hosting Houston. Both teams are viewed as legitimate playoff contenders, and the spread sits inside two points — one of the closest lines of the entire weekend. Houston's defense finished among the league's best in efficiency last season, which gives it a real chance to slow down a Bills offense that has occasionally struggled against top-tier fronts. It's the kind of matchup where the home crowd could be the deciding factor, but there's a live case for the road upset.

Pick: Slight lean Texans, but treat this as a true toss-up.

Cowboys vs. Giants: Sunday Night Fireworks

Sunday Night Football goes back to a classic NFC East rivalry, with Dallas visiting New York in what doubles as John Harbaugh's debut as Giants head coach. Dallas opened as a short favorite, but the storylines run deep: Dak Prescott against a Giants team led by Jaxson Dart, CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens testing a retooled secondary, and a New York pass rush trying to disrupt an explosive Cowboys offense. Bettors have gravitated toward the over here, and it's easy to see why — both offenses have the pieces to push this total well past 45 points.

Pick: Cowboys narrowly, with the over hitting more often than not.

Chiefs vs. Broncos: Monday Night Under the Mahomes Microscope

Kansas City closes out the week hosting Denver on Monday night, and all eyes will be on Patrick Mahomes as he returns from a season-ending knee injury. The Chiefs are short favorites in a game that's really about health and rust more than scheme. If Mahomes looks anything like himself, Kansas City should handle a Denver team still finding its offensive identity. If there are signs of hesitancy, this could be closer than the line suggests.

Pick: Chiefs win, but watch Mahomes' mobility early before trusting the spread.

Eagles vs. Commanders: A Trusted Divisional Trend

Philadelphia opened as a solid home favorite against Washington, and recent history backs that number up — the Eagles have won the majority of their last several meetings with the Commanders. Washington has struggled for stretches over its last ten games overall, while Philadelphia's roster, led by Jalen Hurts, remains built to control the clock and lean on defense. This profiles as one of the more comfortable outcomes of the week for a favorite.

Pick: Eagles win and cover.

Steelers vs. Falcons: Aaron Rodgers' Farewell Tour Begins

Pittsburgh opens on the road in Atlanta in what's being framed as one of the final chapters of Aaron Rodgers' career. The Steelers are modest favorites, but Atlanta's young core gives it a puncher's chance at home. Expect a game that hinges on whether Pittsburgh's defense can generate consistent pressure without needing much from its passing attack.

Pick: Steelers survive on the road.

Packers vs. Vikings: A Razor-Thin Line

Green Bay and Minnesota round out one of the tightest lines on the board, with the number having moved slightly in Minnesota's favor as the week has progressed. The Vikings' passing offense could open things up against a Packers secondary that struggled at times last season, especially if Green Bay's front seven can't manufacture pressure without additional pass-rush help. This is a classic pick-'em that could come down to the final possession.

Pick: Vikings in a close one.

The Bottom Line

Week 1 openers are notoriously unpredictable — rosters are still gelling, injuries linger from the preseason, and small-sample variance rules the day. Treat every one of these picks as informed opinions rather than locks, shop for the best number at your preferred sportsbook, and never bet more than you're comfortable losing. With a slate this loaded, the safest bet of all might just be clearing your schedule to watch.